Gastech 2025 | From Scarcity to Strategy—The LNG Market’s Next Pivot

Gastech 2025: The Milan Inflection | LNG Oversupply, Strategic JVs, and the Economics of Flexibility

For decades, LNG was framed around shortage: who could secure cargoes, at what price, and for how long. In Milan last week, as Gastech 2025 drew nearly 50,000 attendees, 1,000 speakers, and delegations from over 150 countries, the narrative flipped. The industry is no longer planning against scarcity—it is bracing for abundance.

Between 2025 and 2030, more than 200 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of new supply is slated to come online—much of it already under construction. For an industry accustomed to supply fears, this represents a structural inversion: LNG’s age of plenty.

The Data | Expansion Without Pause

The numbers presented in Milan were stark:

• Global LNG supply growth: ~200–230 MTPA by 2030, driven by Qatar’s expansions, U.S. Gulf Coast projects, and brownfield additions.


• China’s demand profile: Still growing—NEVs may have passed 50% of new sales, but gas continues to anchor industrial, power, and shipping demand. ExxonMobil executives underscored that Chinese LNG intake will remain robust.


• Price expectations: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas warned spot prices could average $8–$10/MMBtu by 2027, squeezing merchant projects.

And yet, as Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel told delegates, Russia’s pipelines into China will not kill LNG’s Asian demand story.

“The market is bigger, deeper, and more diverse than the skeptics suggest,”

he argued.

Strategy in Motion | JVs Over Greenfields

If one deal captured the strategic shift, it was Eni’s new joint venture with Petronas, unveiled by CEO Claudio Descalzi at Gastech 2025. The JV targets premium Asian markets—China, South Korea, Southeast Asia—not by adding tonnage, but by aligning existing assets with customer access.

The lesson was unmistakable: in an oversupplied world, value lies not in molecules alone but in where, how, and with what flexibility you deliver them.

Buyers Rewrite the Rules at Gastech 2025

On the demand side, utilities and governments are discarding rigid, 20-year oil-indexed contracts. Instead, they are opting for:

• Hybrid portfolios—core hedges paired with flexible spot access.


• FSRUs as strategic leverage—shorter lead times, lower capex, and immediate entry into growth markets.


• Regional focus—India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa are now the frontline of LNG expansion.

One Indian delegate put it plainly: 

“We don’t need 20 years of oil indexation. We need five years of optionality.”

The Decarbonization Imperative

Oversupply wasn’t the only undercurrent at Gastech 2025. Panels on methane intensity, CCUS pilots, Bio-LNG pathways and AI-driven efficiency drew some of the biggest crowds. Buyers in Europe made it clear: without certified low-carbon credentials, LNG will face shrinking premiums.

A European utility executive summed it up bluntly: 

“Without certified carbon intensity, LNG is becoming harder to place in premium markets.”

What’s Really Happening | Flexibility Becomes Currency

Like solar and batteries a decade ago, LNG is entering commodification. The consequences:

• Margins compress as new supply softens spot prices.


• Winners pivot to regasification, trading desks, and decarbonization branding.


• Losers cling to high-capex, merchant-exposed greenfields without firm offtake.

The paradox is clear: the world will consume more LNG, but producers will earn less per unit unless they adapt commercially.

The Investment Map Ahead from Gastech 2025

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  Strongest growth: regas/FSRU infrastructure in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

  
  


• Best resilience: brownfield expansions and tolling models tied to major portfolios.


• Next battleground: carbon-intensity certification, CCUS integration, and the gradual scaling of Bio-LNG as a niche but growing bridge fuel in Europe.


• Risks: project delays, geopolitics, and a demand surprise that could suddenly swing pricing power back to sellers.

The Verdict | Gastech’s Inflection Point

Gastech 2025 in Milan crystallized the pivot. The LNG industry is leaving behind its scarcity era and entering a cycle where energy & power strategies, commercial ingenuity, and carbon credibility matter more than sheer tonnage.

The question for producers is no longer “how much can we build?” It is:

• Can you secure market access?


• Can you deliver flexibly?


• And can you prove your carbon footprint won’t strand your cargoes?

Because in this new chapter, LNG’s winners will not be the biggest builders, but the smartest strategists.

Making Sense of Gastech 2025 with MarketGenics

The conversations in Milan showed just how quickly the LNG game is changing—oversupply risks, regas projects in India and Southeast Asia, and the growing pressure to prove carbon intensity. At MarketGenics, our job is to turn those signals into usable intelligence.

If you’re building strategy around LNG or new energy infrastructure, let’s talk. We’re already tracking how FSRUs, trading desks, and certified LNG are shifting the competitive map.

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